Gaddafi on the defensive

Libya is still in flames. A Gaddafi on the defensive tries his maximum to salvage his position. The more the protesters go on the offensive, the more he fights with his back on the wall. But going by the trends, the dictator is poised to taste defeat if not now, within one or two weeks. East Libya already under the occupation of protesters, Benqazi, next important city after Tripoli also under their occupation, their confidence too strong and are determined to fight to the hilt to force the dictator to flee the ‘throne', otherwise to kick him out. The man who well entrenched since 41 years in his saddle with nobody even to question or challenge his authority was drunk with power till recently. Because of that reason itself the first sign of resistance that too massive resistance has shaken him violently, it was something unexpected as far as he was concerned.

But his stubborn attitude of ‘not to say die' approach, his powerful militia and armory have so far helped him to launch a massive suppression - free killing almost 1000 citizens so far. Still he finds the resistance irresistible than he had expected and the thought of giving into the pressure of citizens he finds untenable. A man with king-size ego cannot even imagine in his dreams the thought of even inviting the protesters for a negotiation as he considers himself the Almighty of Libya whom nobody could even touch. It is really a dark wonder that the people of Libya were tolerating such a man, even afraid of this man who could force them dance to his tunes like puppets. But as anywhere a dictator, however powerful and iron-fisted he is will have to do a climb down in the face of massive resistance by citizens who can't any more resist the brutal ways of their ruler. Gradually step by step they group under one umbrella shedding their fears and apprehensions, go on the offensive, sometimes they might taste defeat, still not being taken aback they will group together to fight against the dictatorial menace.

We could read about several such dictatorships crumbling down under the might of collective resistance of citizens power we could witness many dictators fleeing away with their tails tucked in between their legs some even getting salvation even by angry mobs, pointing out each a difficult task as the list is endless, similarly is the fate of Muammar-al-Gaddafi like that of Tunisian dictator Zine-El-Abidine-Ben Ali, Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, Pakistani dictator Pervez Musharaf, Nepal Monarch King Gyanendra etc etc.

With international pressure mounting on Gaddafi, his confidents are defecting one by one, army personnel too joining the protesters thus weakening Gaddafi's strangle-hold on Libya with the passing of each day. There are talks of forming a parallel administration by the defected leaders like Interior Minister and once a close confident of Gaddafi. Arab League has asked Gaddafi to stop the genocide and International Criminal Court is closely watching the situation. One day, if matters are going on like these we could very well see this man booked as a culprit by ICC. Security Council has passed a resolution asking Gaddafi to stop the brutal suppression herewith, US, Britain and France are busy mulling financial and weapons sanctions as also Germany. US President Barack Obama has asked Gaddafi several times to withdraw from the scene or to stop forthwith the killing spree of citizens. International pressure is mounting upon him and the man finds himself in a vicious circle. The thought of vacating the saddle is like conceding defeat for him and that is unimaginable with Libya in the grip of massive rebellion. International crude oil prices have jumped up reaching US $120 per barrel each day which threatens each nation. The price is likely to go up in the event of the conflict turning more bitter and violent.

Non-resident Indians as well as people from other countries in large numbers are stranded there, without finding any way out some even fleeing to other nations.

The matters are in such a fluid situation and nobody is in a position to predict how long this conundrum would last, how long this dictator would stick to his position. Before a determined resistance don't think Gaddafi can hold on to power indefinitely.

The Big, Bloody Business of Big, Bloody Oil

“Mark my words.  It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama, like they did John Kennedy.  The world is looking.  We’re about to elect a brilliant 47 year old senator president of the United States of America.  Remember I said it standing here, if you don’t remember anything else I said.  Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.”
Joe Biden, October 2008, at a Seattle fundraiser.

During his speech at the now famous Seattle fundraiser, Mr. Biden named the Middle East and Russia as the possible (likely) generators of the crisis.  As his words became widespread, he received lots of criticism from his fellow democrats, who warned him that by saying those things in public he was jeopardizing Senator’s Obama’s chances at the Presidency.  Mr. Biden’s comments were the target of jokes from late night comedians, and parodied in a skit on Saturday Night Life.  What most people seemed to forget, or wanted to forget, was that Mr. Biden‘s words were the result of his many years of experience in international affairs.  As a seasoned politician, he could foresee the results of this election.  He knew we would have a generated crisis, and he knew it would generate in the Middle East or Russia.

Mr. Biden was accurate in predicting which countries would generate the crisis, but he could have been even more specific:  The crisis would be generated by the oil producers, the only beneficiaries of all the geopolitical turmoil around the world.  It makes no difference whether it’s the Middle East, Russia or Venezuela.  They all act together in unison as one bloc, with one objective in mind: to keep the price of oil high.

Fast forward to the end of December 2008, and Mr. Biden‘s prescient words came to pass.  Now, at the beginning of January 2009, the crisis generated by the oil producers is in full swing.  Russia, the Middle East and Venezuela are having a field day, rubbing their hands in glee at the results.  They finally managed to reverse the steep drop in the price of oil that started in July 2008.  At that time, oil reached an all-time high of around US$150.00 a barrel, enriching the coffers of the oil producing nations and wrecking the rest of the world’s economies.  Since then, the price of oil dropped to below US$40.00 a barrel.  That meant both a respite for the rest of the world, and a serious problem for the oil producers, who need oil to be priced above US$80.00 a barrel.  Anything lower than that and they cannot sustain their dictatorships.  OPEC scheduled emergency meetings to prop the price of oil.  First, they tried cutting down production.  That didn’t help much this time, because high priced oil already caused the deepest recession around the world since the Great Depression.  The world had curtailed their use of oil and the cuts in production were barely felt.  Another emergency meeting, another production cut.  The price of oil kept going down.  By then, it was obvious that no amount of production cuts would raise the price of oil.  They had to resort to the one tried and true marketing/public relations device that never fails in raising the price of oil.

Terrorism.

First, they attacked India.  As the sole terrorist survivor of the Mumbai massacres revealed, the original planned date for the attacks was September 27.  That was changed to November 27, after the US election.  A major terror attack like the one in Mumbai coming a month before the Presidential election would have had an impact on the result, and not the oil producers’ desired impact.

Oil did go up slightly, but that was only the beginning.  Attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq went barely noticed.  The continuous barrage of rockets from Gaza targeting the civilian population of Israel hardly made the news.  However, that was were they concentrated their attacks.  Creating geopolitical turmoil increases the price of oil, and attacking Israel is what delivers the most bang for their buck.  Always.  Iran contacts its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, green lights the attacks, and waits for the oil profits to roll in.  It’s a cost efficient method, too.  The UN and the WITOTs (Willing Idiots Targets Of Terror) condemn Israel, give money and aid to Iran’s proxies, and conveniently forget why the geological turmoil was generated in the first place and by whom.

To condemn Israel for defending its civilian population from terror attacks is the political equivalent of condemning a rape victim to death because she had sex outside the marriage.

Had the oil producers not attacked Israel, today oil would be below US$20.00 a barrel.  US$20.00 a barrel is not a comfortable price for Russia, Iran and Venezuela, the generators of the current crisis.  At US$20.00 a barrel, their economies crumble like dust in the wind.

Hamas and Hezbollah are called “proxies” of Iran.  However, because terrorism is about oil business, and to attack Israel was a business decision, it’s more accurate to call them “subcontractors“.

Joe Biden knew we would have a generated international crisis, and knew where it would come from.  Looking at the correlation of the price of oil and terror attacks,  we can all notice a pattern repeating itself.  What comes next after attacking Israel, and getting the UN, WITOTs and oil producers to condemn Israel‘s response, is a major terror attack somewhere in the world.  Somewhere where they can use extreme cruelty against defenseless people, and claim they did it because they were “angry” at Israel.

Watch the price of oil skyrocket. 

I’m concerned this major terror attack is imminent upon us.  It’s part of the script, scheduled after attacking Israel.
US$80.00 a barrel, here it comes.
All in the name of oil.
Never ever let anybody convince you that terrorism is about something other than raising the price of oil.
It’s not.

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